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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd